Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline. Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman. If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026