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Geopolitics

AllIranOilUkraineCubaVenezuelaUkraine Peace DealUkraine MapGazaIsraelSudanChinaThailand-CambodiaMiddle EastForeign PolicyIndia-PakistanSouth KoreaYemenSyriaTurkey
AllIranOilUkraineCubaVenezuelaUkraine Peace DealUkraine MapGazaIsraelSudanChinaThailand-CambodiaMiddle EastForeign PolicyIndia-PakistanSouth KoreaYemenSyriaTurkey

Netanyahu out by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 311%

$120.3M Vol.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

April 22<1%April 24<1%April 30<1%

$107.1M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

63%

YesNo

Delcy Rodríguez

26%

YesNo
+ 55 more

$87.6M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

March 31<1%April 15<1%April 30<1%

$42.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$39.0M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$37.9M Vol.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

April 18<1%April 19<1%April 20<1%

$35.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$27.6M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$23.4M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$18.3M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 311%

$17.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$17.6M Vol.

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

April 23<1%April 12<1%April 13<1%

$16.6M Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya

8%

YesNo

Donald Trump

7%

YesNo
+ 69 more

$16.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

December 31, 2025<1%January 31<1%March 31<1%

$14.2M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 319%

$13.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$13.1M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

April 30<1%May 317%June 3014%

$13.1M Vol.

Iran closes its airspace by...?

May 159%May 6<1%May 7<1%

$12.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$11.9M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

No

$9.9M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$9.2M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$8.3M Vol.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu

41%

YesNo

Naftali Bennett

28%

YesNo
+ 26 more

$8.1M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei

64%

YesNo

Reza Pahlavi

9%

YesNo
+ 121 more

$7.8M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$7.7M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%December 317%

$7.5M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

April 30<1%May 316%June 3019%

$6.9M Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4

33%

YesNo

5

33%

YesNo
+ 14 more

$6.7M Vol.

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

August 31<1%September 30<1%October 31<1%

$6.2M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

No meeting by June 30

91%

YesNo

China

4%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$5.6M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

April 30<1%June 302%December 318%

$5.4M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Pakistan

56%

YesNo

No Meeting by June 30

38%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$4.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

35%

chance

Yes

No

$4.5M Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20262%

$4.4M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$4.3M Vol.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

October 31<1%November 7<1%November 30<1%

$4.0M Vol.

Will Trump visit China on...?

May 13

96%

YesNo

May 14

2%

YesNo
+ 30 more

$3.5M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31<1% March 31<1%December 3117%

$3.4M Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%December 3137%

$3.3M Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

20+

100%

YesNo

40+

<1%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$3.1M Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

October 31<1%December 31<1%November 30<1%

$2.7M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 315%

$2.7M Vol.

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$2.7M Vol.

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 3114%

$2.6M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20264%December 31, 202612%

$2.6M Vol.

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

January 10<1%January 17<1%January 31<1%

$2.5M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027

75%

YesNo

Turkey

6%

YesNo
+ 28 more

$2.4M Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20262%December 31, 202613%

$2.4M Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

January 31<1%February 28<1%March 31<1%

$2.3M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$2.1M Vol.

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20263%December 31, 202614%

$2.1M Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%December 3119%

$2.0M Vol.

Russian strike on Poland by...?

September 30<1%December 31<1%June 30, 20264%

$1.9M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31, 2025<1%March 31<1%June 304%

$1.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

23%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

March 31<1%April 15<1%April 30<1%

$1.7M Vol.