Tech

Alphabet

13%

+ 26 more

$11.9M Vol.

IPOs before 2027?

Once Upon a Farm

100%

Wealthfront

100%

+ 32 more

$6.2M Vol.

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Anthropic

68%

Google

19%

$5.7M Vol.

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Anthropic

83%

Google

14%

+ 27 more

$5.7M Vol.

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Other (incl $SPCX)

56%

$X

36%

February 6<1%December 31, 2025<1%February 14, 2026<1%

$5.7M Vol.

Claude 5 released by…?

$3.6M Vol.

Largest Company end of May?

NVIDIA

93%

Alphabet

7%

+ 27 more

$3.5M Vol.

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$3.3M Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+

95%

No IPO before 2028

2%

December 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%December 31, 202628%

$3.2M Vol.

AI bubble burst by...?

$2.8M Vol.

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA

64%

Alphabet

27%

+ 26 more

$2.7M Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

2.0T-2.5T

28%

1.5T-2.0T

28%

$2.0M Vol.

Human moon landing in 2026?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$1.9M Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

88%

xAI

26%

+ 72 more

$1.8M Vol.

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

41%

Goldman Sachs

35%

Super Heavy booster explodes?<1%Successful splash down?<1%Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?<1%

+ 28 more

$1.7M Vol.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

$1.7M Vol.

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by December 31, 2026

72%

1.5T+

11%

$1.6M Vol.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

>$1T

95%

>$1.2T

94%

December 31<1%June 3050%March 31, 2026<1%

+ 7 more

$1.6M Vol.

Kraken IPO by ___ ?

$1.6M Vol.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Anthropic

100%

OpenAI

13%

+ 9 more

$1.6M Vol.

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

$800B

73%

$1T

60%

+ 3 more

$1.5M Vol.

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic

66%

Google

25%

$1.4M Vol.

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026

98%

600B+

1%

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20261%December 31, 202628%

$1.2M Vol.

OpenAI IPO by...?

$1.2M Vol.

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Paramount

77%

None by June 30, 2027

19%

+ 13 more

$1.1M Vol.

Who will acquire TikTok?

Larry Ellison/Oracle

100%

Microsoft

7%

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 314%

$1.0M Vol.

Gemini 3.5 released by...?

$1.0M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

July 3114%December 3114%

$937.3K Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+

67%

1.8T–2.0T

10%

$934.2K Vol.

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026

67%

15–20B

16%

+ 4 more

$887.6K Vol.

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Tim Cook - Apple

100%

Sam Altman - OpenAI

17%

+ 4 more

$690.7K Vol.

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

21%

chance

Yes

No

$563.3K Vol.

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

76%

chance

Yes

No

$458.9K Vol.

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO by June 30, 2026

87%

100–125B

5%

$403.2K Vol.

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Anthropic

55%

Google

17%

$395.5K Vol.

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Anthropic

83%

Google

13%

March 31<1%April 30<1%June 3012%

+ 27 more

$371.3K Vol.

Claude Mythos released by…?

$363.6K Vol.

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

43%

chance

Yes

No

$333.1K Vol.

Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

45%+

100%

40%+

100%

December 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%June 30, 202612%

+ 3 more

$311.9K Vol.

GPT-6 released by…?

$301.8K Vol.

Gemini 3.2 released by...?

May 8<1%May 153%May 2294%

$296.9K Vol.

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

600B+

86%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

13%

$293.5K Vol.

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

30%+

100%

35%+

100%

December 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%December 31, 202622%

+ 3 more

$283.1K Vol.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

34%

chance

Yes

No

$277.3K Vol.

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$270.1K Vol.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

23%

chance

Yes

No

$269.0K Vol.

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

$253.5K Vol.

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Ring

29%

Earbuds/Headphones

26%

+ 8 more

$247.2K Vol.

Which cities will Waymo launch in by June 30?

Miami

100%

Nashville

93%

+ 7 more

$234.3K Vol.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$217.6K Vol.

How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?

11

37%

12+

19%

December 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%June 30, 202616%

$162.3K Vol.

Anthropic CEO arrested?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$161.0K Vol.

Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

74%

chance

Yes

No

$159.9K Vol.

Grok 5 released by...?

$155.7K Vol.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

88%

chance

Yes

No

$155.2K Vol.

Next Google Gemini Model: Arena Debut?

1490+1%1480+1%1460+88%

$148.4K Vol.

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$142.2K Vol.

Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO before 2028

46%

50B–75B

12%

$139.8K Vol.

How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?

50-60B

40%

80-90B

19%