Economy

1 (25 bps)

20%

+ 11 more

$25.1M Vol.

Fed Decision in June?

No change

97%

25 bps decrease

2%

$23.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$13.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of June?

NVIDIA

84%

Alphabet

13%

+ 26 more

$11.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$11.9M Vol.

Fed Decision in July?

No change

91%

25 bps decrease

6%

$5.0M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

35%

chance

Yes

No

$4.5M Vol.

Largest Company end of May?

NVIDIA

93%

Alphabet

7%

+ 27 more

$3.5M Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

20+

100%

40+

<1%

+ 2 more

$3.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA

64%

Alphabet

27%

January Meeting<1%March Meeting<1%April Meeting<1%

+ 26 more

$2.7M Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.7M Vol.

US recession by end of 2026?

23%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

40%

↓ 3.0%

12%

+ 18 more

$1.4M Vol.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

21%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

97%

Pause–Pause–Cut

2%

$1.0M Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$851.4K Vol.

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 3%

100%

Above 3.5%

100%

+ 5 more

$849.7K Vol.

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Tim Cook - Apple

100%

Sam Altman - OpenAI

17%

+ 4 more

$690.7K Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%

75%

5.0–6.0%

22%

$497.0K Vol.

Which banks will fail by June 30?

BNY

9%

RBC

2%

+ 17 more

$484.6K Vol.

April Inflation US - Annual

3.7%

44%

3.8%

36%

+ 9 more

$393.7K Vol.

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%

28%

5.5%

14%

$384.6K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

20+

45%

40+

24%

+ 2 more

$340.6K Vol.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$281.1K Vol.

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

April 30<1%June 3013%

$216.8K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

4.0%

100%

3.9%

52%

$214.0K Vol.

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$198.2K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.3%

100%

4.4%

100%

$197.0K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

25 bps Increase

81%

No change

19%

June Meeting1%September Meeting15%April Meeting<1%

$191.2K Vol.

Fed rate hike by...?

$145.1K Vol.

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$137.0K Vol.

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

↑ $4.60

90%

↑ $4.70

65%

$135.4K Vol.

ECB rate hike in 2026?

88%

chance

Yes

No

$109.2K Vol.

Bank of Brazil Decision in June?

Decrease

85%

No Change

15%

+ 1 more

$106.5K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$103.8K Vol.

2nd largest company end of May?

Alphabet

92%

NVIDIA

6%

+ 27 more

$102.7K Vol.

Bank of England decision in June?

No change

86%

25 bps increase

14%

$97.8K Vol.

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1m

97%

1.1m

87%

+ 6 more

$97.0K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in June?

25 bps increase

64%

No change

37%

+ 2 more

$96.0K Vol.

April Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%

38%

0.7%

31%

$95.3K Vol.

3rd largest company end of May?

Apple

96%

Alphabet

2%

+ 27 more

$88.7K Vol.

Bank of Korea decision in May?

No Change

94%

Increase

7%

+ 1 more

$86.2K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Lockheed Martin

42%

Freeport-McMoRan

38%

+ 16 more

$82.5K Vol.

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$72.9K Vol.

Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?

↑ 1.9M

74%

↑ 2.0M

51%

$70.5K Vol.

Canada recession before 2027?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$66.5K Vol.

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

55

41%

54

40%

+ 11 more

$65.7K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+

79%

3.00% to 3.74%

16%

+ 5 more

$60.0K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%

35%

6.50-6.99%

25%

$56.9K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?

400M

100%

375M

93%

+ 4 more

$56.4K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in April?

$2.25–2.50

75%

$2.00–2.25

24%

$54.9K Vol.

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$52.4K Vol.

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

24%

chance

Yes

No

$51.8K Vol.

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

87%

chance

Yes

No

$51.4K Vol.

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$50.1K Vol.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

40%

chance

Yes

No

$49.5K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in June?

Decrease

82%

No Change

17%

+ 1 more

$48.7K Vol.

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Pause–Pause–Pause

88%

Pause–Pause–Cut

9%