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Iran

AllMilitary StrikesOilIran RegimeIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzRegional SpilloverU.S. x IranIran Offensive StrikesReza PahlaviLebanonNuclearIsrael x IranKurds
AllMilitary StrikesOilIran RegimeIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzRegional SpilloverU.S. x IranIran Offensive StrikesReza PahlaviLebanonNuclearIsrael x IranKurds

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

April 22<1%April 24<1%April 30<1%

$107.1M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

March 31<1%April 15<1%April 30<1%

$42.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$39.0M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$37.9M Vol.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

April 18<1%April 19<1%April 20<1%

$35.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$27.6M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$18.3M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 311%

$17.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$17.6M Vol.

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

April 23<1%April 12<1%April 13<1%

$16.6M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 319%

$13.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$13.1M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

April 30<1%May 317%June 3014%

$13.1M Vol.

Iran closes its airspace by...?

May 159%May 6<1%May 7<1%

$12.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$11.9M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei

64%

YesNo

Reza Pahlavi

9%

YesNo
+ 121 more

$7.8M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%December 317%

$7.5M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

April 30<1%May 316%June 3019%

$6.9M Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4

33%

YesNo

5

33%

YesNo
+ 14 more

$6.7M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Pakistan

56%

YesNo

No Meeting by June 30

38%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$4.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

35%

chance

Yes

No

$4.5M Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

20+

100%

YesNo

40+

<1%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$3.1M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 315%

$2.7M Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

March 13<1%March 16<1%March 31<1%

$1.6M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

54%

chance

Yes

No

$1.3M Vol.

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$1.2M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$1.2M Vol.

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Jared Kushner

61%

YesNo

Steve Witkoff

59%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$1.2M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

April 30<1%May 312%June 3011%

$983.4K Vol.

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 319%

$842.1K Vol.

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

April 30<1%April 22<1%May 313%

$809.1K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

25-49

99%

YesNo

50-74

1%

YesNo
+ 5 more

$800.4K Vol.

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$778.7K Vol.

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Oil Sanction Relief

17%

YesNo

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

14%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$760.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

95%

chance

Yes

No

$741.0K Vol.

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

United States

100%

YesNo

United Kingdom

9%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$718.5K Vol.

Israel closes its airspace by...?

May 8<1%May 3136%

$718.3K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

June 302%September 3025%December 317%

$696.4K Vol.

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

65%

chance

Yes

No

$668.0K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

0-10

97%

YesNo

10-20

2%

YesNo
+ 5 more

$624.1K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$596.8K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$596.7K Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%June 3011%

$593.6K Vol.

Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?

April 30<1%May 314%

$582.0K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$578.7K Vol.

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$541.8K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$512.2K Vol.

Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

March 7<1%March 14<1%March 31<1%

$468.8K Vol.

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 313%

$431.7K Vol.

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Any U.S. House member

5%

YesNo

Any U.S. Senator

3%

YesNo
+ 6 more

$385.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

11%

chance

Yes

No

$375.9K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

20+

45%

YesNo

40+

24%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$340.6K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$249.0K Vol.

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$215.8K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

36%

chance

Yes

No

$209.5K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$190.2K Vol.