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Iran

AllMilitary StrikesOilIran RegimeIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzRegional SpilloverU.S. x IranIran Offensive StrikesReza PahlaviLebanonNuclearIsrael x IranKurds
AllMilitary StrikesOilIran RegimeIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzRegional SpilloverU.S. x IranIran Offensive StrikesReza PahlaviLebanonNuclearIsrael x IranKurds

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

March 31<1%April 15<1%April 30<1%

$42.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$39.0M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$18.3M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 311%

$17.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$17.6M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 319%

$13.4M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei

64%

YesNo

Reza Pahlavi

9%

YesNo
+ 121 more

$7.8M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$1.2M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

95%

chance

Yes

No

$741.0K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$578.7K Vol.

Internet Access restored in Iran by...?

March 7<1%March 14<1%March 31<1%

$469.1K Vol.

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 313%

$431.7K Vol.

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$215.8K Vol.