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Iran

AllMilitary StrikesOilIran RegimeIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzRegional SpilloverU.S. x IranIran Offensive StrikesReza PahlaviLebanonNuclearIsrael x IranKurds
AllMilitary StrikesOilIran RegimeIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzRegional SpilloverU.S. x IranIran Offensive StrikesReza PahlaviLebanonNuclearIsrael x IranKurds

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

April 22<1%April 24<1%April 30<1%

$107.1M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$37.9M Vol.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

April 18<1%April 19<1%April 20<1%

$35.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$18.3M Vol.

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

April 23<1%April 12<1%April 13<1%

$16.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$13.3M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

April 30<1%May 317%June 3014%

$13.1M Vol.

Iran closes its airspace by...?

May 159%May 6<1%May 7<1%

$12.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$12.0M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

April 30<1%May 316%June 3019%

$6.9M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Pakistan

54%

YesNo

No Meeting by June 30

38%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$4.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

34%

chance

Yes

No

$4.5M Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

20+

100%

YesNo

40+

<1%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$3.1M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$1.2M Vol.

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Jared Kushner

62%

YesNo

Steve Witkoff

59%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$1.2M Vol.

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$778.7K Vol.

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Oil Sanction Relief

17%

YesNo

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

14%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$765.8K Vol.

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

United States

100%

YesNo

United Kingdom

9%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$718.6K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

0-10

97%

YesNo

10-20

2%

YesNo
+ 5 more

$624.1K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$596.8K Vol.

Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?

April 30<1%May 314%

$582.0K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$512.2K Vol.

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 313%

$431.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$397.7K Vol.

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Any U.S. House member

5%

YesNo

Any U.S. Senator

3%

YesNo
+ 6 more

$386.0K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

20+

45%

YesNo

40+

24%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$340.8K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$249.0K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

36%

chance

Yes

No

$209.5K Vol.