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China

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$41.7M Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$3.4M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$3.2M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$2.1M Vol.

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

September 15<1%September 2391%September 2494%

$1.4M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%

90%

YesNo

5.0–6.0%

6%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$901.1K Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$468.7K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba

86%

YesNo

Moonshot

11%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$466.4K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$448.2K Vol.

Jimmy Lai released by...?

June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 20265%

$381.6K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$363.7K Vol.

China x India military clash by...?

June 30<1%December 31<1%December 31, 20267%

$330.8K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Tencent

32%

YesNo

CATL

32%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$309.1K Vol.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

89%

chance

Yes

No

$252.4K Vol.

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#3

26%

YesNo

#1

8%

YesNo

$241.3K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$211.3K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Yi1%Cai Qi5%Li Qiang1%

$211.3K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$167.1K Vol.

China coup attempt before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$157.0K Vol.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

June 30<1%December 3132%

$137.5K Vol.

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Z.ai

69%

YesNo

Moonshot

17%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$122.7K Vol.

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$111.1K Vol.

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$105.8K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

June 30<1%July 31<1%September 302%

$98.1K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

DeepSeek

31%

YesNo

Xiaomi

21%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$92.5K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%

54%

YesNo

1.1 – 1.5%

24%

YesNo
+ 7 more

$85.7K Vol.

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 202612%

$56.3K Vol.

People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?

No Change

96%

YesNo

Decrease

4%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$54.4K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

17%

chance

Yes

No

$53.1K Vol.

Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$50.1K Vol.

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Moonshot

71%

YesNo

Z.ai

20%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$49.3K Vol.

Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?

June 30<1%July 31<1%August 31<1%

$48.2K Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%

56%

YesNo

4.6-4.9%

34%

YesNo
+ 7 more

$37.2K Vol.

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Moonshot

37%

YesNo

Z.ai

36%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$27.4K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Alibaba

74%

YesNo

Moonshot

18%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$23.7K Vol.

Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

No

$21.9K Vol.

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$19.1K Vol.

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Moonshot

42%

YesNo

Z.ai

37%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$15.7K Vol.

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%

45%

YesNo

0.7% to 0.8%

27%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$12.9K Vol.

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

19%

chance

Yes

No

$11.0K Vol.

US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$6.3K Vol.

Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$6.2K Vol.

Ren Zhengfei public appearance by...?

September 3033%October 3163%December 3170%

$5.2K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$1.9K Vol.

Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?

September 307%October 319%December 3121%

$1.7K Vol.

How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?

10–15s

48%

YesNo

6–10s

46%

YesNo
+ 5 more

$586 Vol.

Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$204 Vol.

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$180 Vol.

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$146 Vol.