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China

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$38.9M Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$3.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$2.2M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$1.0M Vol.

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%

88%

YesNo

5.0–6.0%

11%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$792.6K Vol.

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

93%

chance

Yes

No

$560.2K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Alibaba

87%

YesNo

Moonshot

9%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$484.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$384.8K Vol.

Jimmy Lai released by...?

June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 20266%

$373.9K Vol.

China x India military clash by...?

June 30<1%December 31<1%December 31, 202611%

$311.1K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Yi6%Cai Qi4%Li Qiang3%

$190.6K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$169.3K Vol.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

89%

chance

Yes

No

$158.5K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$157.1K Vol.

China coup attempt before 2027?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$152.2K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

No

$149.3K Vol.

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

June 30<1%December 3113%

$136.1K Vol.

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$104.8K Vol.

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$103.8K Vol.

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#10

99%

YesNo

#5

67%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$90.7K Vol.

US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$86.7K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

July 31<1%June 30<1%December 3121%

$63.3K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%

43%

YesNo

1.1 – 1.5%

40%

YesNo
+ 7 more

$58.3K Vol.

Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$48.7K Vol.

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 202671%

$44.6K Vol.

Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?

July 31<1%June 30<1%December 3185%

$40.0K Vol.

People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?

No Change

84%

YesNo

Decrease

13%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$18.0K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Alibaba

57%

YesNo

Z.ai

13%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$13.4K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$13.3K Vol.

Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?

51%

chance

Yes

No

$8.3K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

DeepSeek

32%

YesNo

Xiaomi

18%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$6.1K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

YMTC

49%

YesNo

CATL

49%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$5.6K Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%

51%

YesNo

4.6-4.9%

28%

YesNo
+ 7 more

$5.3K Vol.

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

21%

chance

Yes

No

$3.8K Vol.

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Moonshot

36%

YesNo

Z.ai

27%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$3.8K Vol.

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

DeepSeek

46%

YesNo

Alibaba

37%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$167 Vol.

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Moonshot

52%

YesNo

Z.ai

44%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$53 Vol.