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Trump

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

84%

YesNo

Delcy Rodríguez

10%

YesNo
+ 14 more

$96.1M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

No

$66.5M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$35.5M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

April 30<1%May 31<1%June 30<1%

$29.4M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 14<1%July 24<1%July 31<1%

$28.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$26.0M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$21.5M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

April 30<1%May 31<1%June 30<1%

$17.9M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$11.7M Vol.

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

June 26<1%July 3<1%July 10<1%

$11.4M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$10.7M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

May 31<1%June 30<1%August 31<1%

$7.7M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31, 2025<1%March 31<1%June 30<1%

$6.9M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%

54%

YesNo

4.0%

20%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$6.9M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

January 9<1%January 2450%January 31<1%

$6.5M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

April 30<1%June 30<1%August 31<1%

$6.3M Vol.

Russia nuclear test by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%

$6.2M Vol.

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

No Meeting by September 30

93%

YesNo

Pakistan

3%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$5.7M Vol.

Fed Decision in October?

No change

55%

YesNo

25 bps increase

45%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$5.0M Vol.

Epstein client list released by...?

December 31<1%June 30<1%July 31<1%

$4.4M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027

94%

YesNo

US

1%

YesNo
+ 12 more

$3.5M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31<1% March 31<1%December 318%

$3.5M Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?

December 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%December 31, 20262%

$3.1M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47

33%

YesNo

48

16%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$2.9M Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

October 31<1%November 30<1%December 31<1%

$2.9M Vol.

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 317%

$2.7M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 20262%

$2.7M Vol.

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

January 31<1%June 30<1%July 31<1%

$2.6M Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$2.6M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

August 12<1%August 15<1%August 22<1%

$2.5M Vol.

Will Alberta join the US?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$2.2M Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%December 3116%

$2.2M Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

March 31<1%June 30<1%December 3113%

$2.2M Vol.

Iran coup attempt by...?

June 30<1%December 3110%

$2.1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

May 31<1%June 30<1%October 316%

$1.9M Vol.

US x Russia military clash by...?

December 31<1%January 31<1%June 30, 2026<1%

$1.8M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$1.7M Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 31<1%

$1.7M Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

No

$1.7M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Dan Scavino

29%

YesNo

Kristi Noem

29%

YesNo
+ 14 more

$1.4M Vol.

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

September 15<1%September 2391%September 2494%

$1.4M Vol.

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 3114%

$1.4M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

August 15<1%August 31<1%September 15<1%

$1.3M Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%April 30<1%

$1.1M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China

55%

YesNo

No meeting by December 31

33%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$1.1M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman

71%

YesNo

Delcy Rodríguez

63%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$1.0M Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 20262%June 30, 202750%December 31, 202755%

$1.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

69%

YesNo

No change

31%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$973.1K Vol.

Trump out as President by September 30?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$951.3K Vol.

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

May 31<1%June 30<1%December 314%

$824.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

August 31, 2026<1%December 31, 20268%

$819.2K Vol.

Weed rescheduled by...?

March 31<1%June 30<1%July 31<1%

$810.2K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%

$795.7K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$759.3K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time

51%

YesNo

60+

34%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$735.0K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff

33%

YesNo

Jared Kushner

28%

YesNo
+ 18 more

$664.3K Vol.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

December 31<1%February 4<1%June 30<1%

$661.6K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan

40%

YesNo

South Korea

23%

YesNo
+ 18 more

$649.6K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$635.5K Vol.