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Trump

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

April 22<1%April 24<1%April 30<1%

$107.1M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

63%

YesNo

Delcy Rodríguez

26%

YesNo
+ 55 more

$87.6M Vol.

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

100%

YesNo

Judy Shelton

<1%

YesNo
+ 33 more

$55.9M Vol.

Will Trump visit China by...?

October 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%May 1599%

$38.0M Vol.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

April 18<1%April 19<1%April 20<1%

$35.2M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$33.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$27.7M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$17.6M Vol.

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

April 23<1%April 12<1%April 13<1%

$16.6M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

April 30<1%May 317%June 3014%

$13.1M Vol.

Epstein suicide note released by...?

May 8<1%May 3113%

$11.8M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

No

$9.9M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$8.3M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

April 30<1%May 316%June 3019%

$6.9M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75%

55%

YesNo

3.25%

14%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$6.5M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

January 9<1%January 2450%January 31<1%

$5.9M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

No meeting by June 30

91%

YesNo

China

4%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$5.6M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

April 30<1%June 302%December 318%

$5.4M Vol.

Trump out as President by June 30?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$5.1M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Pakistan

54%

YesNo

No Meeting by June 30

38%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$4.8M Vol.

Epstein client list released by...?

December 31<1%June 303%

$4.3M Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31<1%May 141%May 3199%

$4.2M Vol.

Will Trump visit China on...?

May 13

96%

YesNo

May 14

2%

YesNo
+ 30 more

$3.5M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31<1% March 31<1%December 3117%

$3.4M Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

20+

100%

YesNo

40+

<1%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$3.1M Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

October 31<1%December 31<1%November 30<1%

$2.7M Vol.

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 3114%

$2.6M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20264%December 31, 202612%

$2.6M Vol.

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

January 31<1%June 302%Before 202710%

$2.5M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027

75%

YesNo

Turkey

6%

YesNo
+ 28 more

$2.4M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47

26%

YesNo

50

19%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$2.3M Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$2.2M Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%December 3119%

$2.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31, 2025<1%March 31<1%June 304%

$1.9M Vol.

Who visited Epstein's Island?

Richard Branson

100%

YesNo

Deepak Chopra

7%

YesNo
+ 16 more

$1.8M Vol.

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

December 31<1%January 31<1%February 28<1%

$1.5M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

7%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

Russia nuclear test by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%

$1.4M Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

March 31<1%June 3019%December 3159%

$1.3M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$1.3M Vol.

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

January 10<1%January 31<1%March 31<1%

$1.3M Vol.

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

May 1<1%May 1597%June 30100%

$1.3M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

December 31<1%June 30, 20261%

$1.2M Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

March 31<1%May 3118%April 30<1%

$1.2M Vol.

Trump out as President by May 31?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$1.2M Vol.

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 3116%

$1.2M Vol.

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Jared Kushner

62%

YesNo

Steve Witkoff

59%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$1.2M Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Pam Bondi

100%

YesNo

Dan Bongino

100%

YesNo
+ 18 more

$1.1M Vol.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%April 30<1%

$1.1M Vol.

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$778.7K Vol.

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Oil Sanction Relief

17%

YesNo

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

14%

YesNo
+ 2 more

$765.8K Vol.

Weed rescheduled by...?

March 31<1%June 303% December 3129%

$756.8K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$709.2K Vol.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

68%

chance

Yes

No

$689.6K Vol.

Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?

No Announcement by June 30

50%

YesNo

Todd Blanche

10%

YesNo
+ 33 more

$687.6K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%

$665.1K Vol.

US x Russia military clash by...?

December 31<1%January 31<1%June 30, 20263%

$652.8K Vol.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

December 31<1%February 4<1%June 306%

$591.6K Vol.

Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?

April 30<1%May 314%

$582.0K Vol.