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Trump

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

80%

YesNo

Delcy Rodríguez

13%

YesNo
+ 14 more

$94.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$45.9M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$35.0M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

April 30<1%May 31<1%June 30<1%

$28.6M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

No

$22.6M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

April 30<1%May 31<1%June 30<1%

$17.4M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$10.5M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

8%

chance

Yes

No

$10.2M Vol.

Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?

100%

chance

Yes

No

$8.5M Vol.

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

June 26<1%June 30<1%July 10<1%

$7.6M Vol.

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

June 26<1%July 3<1%July 10<1%

$7.0M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.75%

31%

YesNo

4.0%

25%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$6.7M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

January 9<1%January 2450%January 31<1%

$6.3M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

April 30<1%June 30<1%August 311%

$6.3M Vol.

Russia nuclear test by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%

$6.1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

June 30<1%August 318%October 3119%

$5.6M Vol.

Epstein client list released by...?

December 31<1%June 30<1%July 311%

$4.4M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31<1% March 31<1%December 3112%

$3.4M Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?

December 31, 2025<1%March 31, 2026<1%December 31, 20263%

$3.1M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31, 2025<1%March 31<1%June 30<1%

$3.0M Vol.

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Switzerland

25%

YesNo

Pakistan

23%

YesNo
+ 17 more

$3.0M Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

October 31<1%December 31<1%November 30<1%

$2.8M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027

89%

YesNo

Switzerland

3%

YesNo
+ 12 more

$2.7M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤47

24%

YesNo

51

16%

YesNo
+ 9 more

$2.7M Vol.

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 318%

$2.7M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 2026<1%December 31, 20265%

$2.6M Vol.

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

January 31<1%June 30<1%July 31<1%

$2.6M Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$2.5M Vol.

Will Alberta join the US?

3%

chance

Yes

No

$2.2M Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

January 31<1%March 31<1%December 3121%

$2.1M Vol.

Iran coup attempt by...?

June 30<1%December 3115%

$2.1M Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

March 31<1%June 30<1%December 3130%

$2.1M Vol.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

42%

chance

Yes

No

$2.1M Vol.

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

2%

YesNo

Mohammed bin Salman

2%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$2.0M Vol.

US x Russia military clash by...?

December 31<1%January 31<1%June 30, 2026<1%

$1.8M Vol.

Trump out as President by July 31?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

March 31<1%May 31<1%April 30<1%

$1.6M Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

No

$1.5M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$1.4M Vol.

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

January 9<1%January 31<1%December 3119%

$1.4M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

22%

chance

Yes

No

$1.3M Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Markwayne Mullin

49%

YesNo

David Sacks

39%

YesNo
+ 15 more

$1.3M Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

30+

17%

YesNo

40+

10%

YesNo
+ 4 more

$1.2M Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

July 31<1%January 31<1%March 31<1%

$1.1M Vol.

US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

June 26<1%June 30<1%July 17<1%

$1.1M Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$976.6K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$929.4K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

May 31<1%June 30<1%October 3112%

$831.5K Vol.

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

0%

chance

Yes

No

$829.3K Vol.

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

May 31<1%June 30<1%December 3110%

$817.7K Vol.

Weed rescheduled by...?

March 31<1%June 30<1% December 3122%

$783.7K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%

$767.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman

62%

YesNo

Vladimir Putin

32%

YesNo
+ 12 more

$735.7K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$733.5K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

August 31, 20262%December 31, 202614%

$703.6K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time

36%

YesNo

60+

30%

YesNo
+ 3 more

$648.8K Vol.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

December 31<1%February 4<1%June 30<1%

$623.9K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$616.5K Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 14<1%July 246%July 3119%

$612.9K Vol.

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 31<1%

$609.9K Vol.