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Israel

AllTrumpMidtermsGlobal ElectionsGov ShutdownEpsteinTexas SenatePrimariesChinaBrazilHungary ElectionSlovenia ElectionColombia ElectionGerman ElectionsVenezuelaCourtsUS ElectionTrade WarCongressMayoral ElectionsCabinetSenateIsraelCanada
All1.6KTrump290Midterms546Global Elections128Gov Shutdown6Epstein24Texas Senate6Primaries183China38Brazil15Hungary Election7Slovenia Election2Colombia Election6German Elections4Venezuela31Courts21US Election149Trade War8Congress41Mayoral Elections10Cabinet8Senate7Israel74Canada28

Netanyahu out by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 311%

$120.3M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$39.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$27.7M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$18.3M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 311%

$17.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$17.6M Vol.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu

41%

YesNo

Naftali Bennett

28%

YesNo
+ 26 more

$8.1M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%December 317%

$7.5M Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

4

32%

YesNo

5

32%

YesNo
+ 14 more

$6.7M Vol.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

October 31<1%November 7<1%November 30<1%

$4.0M Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

October 31<1%December 31<1%November 30<1%

$2.7M Vol.

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2025<1%June 30, 20263%December 31, 202614%

$2.1M Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$1.8M Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

March 31<1%April 15<1%April 30<1%

$1.7M Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

November 30<1%December 31<1%February 28, 2026<1%

$1.7M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

March 13<1%March 16<1%March 31<1%

$1.6M Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

54%

chance

Yes

No

$1.3M Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%December 3113%

$1.1M Vol.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$1.1M Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

April 30<1%May 312%June 3011%

$983.4K Vol.

Israeli parliament dissolved by...?

October 31<1%March 31<1%December 31<1%

$930.8K Vol.

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

June 30, 20264%December 31, 202613%

$847.9K Vol.

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

March 31<1%April 30<1%May 319%

$842.1K Vol.

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

April 30<1%April 22<1%May 313%

$809.1K Vol.

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

September 30<1%December 31<1%October 31<1%

$770.0K Vol.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

December 31<1%March 31, 2026<1%April 30, 2026<1%

$760.1K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

95%

chance

Yes

No

$741.0K Vol.

Israel closes its airspace by...?

May 8<1%May 3135%

$718.4K Vol.

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

65%

chance

Yes

No

$668.0K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

New Zealand

30%

YesNo

Finland

22%

YesNo
+ 8 more

$616.2K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

March 31<1%April 30<1%June 305%

$612.7K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland

36%

YesNo

Azerbaijan

22%

YesNo
+ 5 more

$566.9K Vol.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

June 3019% October 31<1%December 31<1%

$546.2K Vol.

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?<1%June 30, 20265%December 31, 202618%

$433.2K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Lebanon

4%

YesNo

Saudi Arabia

4%

YesNo
+ 13 more

$318.3K Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$311.2K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$206.7K Vol.

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

19%

chance

Yes

No

$195.9K Vol.

Israel military action against Damascus by...?

September 30<1%October 31<1%December 31<1%

$182.6K Vol.

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

April 26<1%May 313%

$161.1K Vol.

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

26%

chance

Yes

No

$150.2K Vol.

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

24%

chance

Yes

No

$135.3K Vol.

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

84%

chance

Yes

No

$128.1K Vol.

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

June 309%December 3141%

$120.3K Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

36%

chance

Yes

No

$113.0K Vol.

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$90.8K Vol.

Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$74.2K Vol.

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

June 3010%December 3147%

$68.6K Vol.

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$67.6K Vol.

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$56.6K Vol.

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$50.5K Vol.

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$50.1K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in May?

Decrease

53%

YesNo

No Change

45%

YesNo
+ 1 more

$35.4K Vol.

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?

April 17<1%April 30<1%June 3018%

$35.2K Vol.

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

April 26<1%May 315%

$28.9K Vol.

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

38%

chance

Yes

No

$28.8K Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

13%

chance

Yes

No

$24.4K Vol.

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

28%

chance

Yes

No

$15.2K Vol.

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

30%

chance

Yes

No

$14.0K Vol.

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$13.9K Vol.